A.N. Asaul, I. P. Prince, Yu. V. Korotaeva Theory and practice of decision-making to get organizations out of crisis Ed. honorable Builds. RF, Doctor of Economics. sciences, prof. A.N. Asaula. – St. Petersburg: ANO “IPEV”, 2007. -224 p.

Chapter 1. Methodology for making management decisions

1.1. Management decisions: essence, classification and technology of adoption

“The modern management paradigm assumes that management systems should be comprehensively developed and using advanced influence technologies, which are based on the processes of scientific foresight and forecasting. Effective management of any systems (objects) in relation to various spheres of human activity today is impossible without the subject foreseeing both the obstacles to the goal and the consequences of achieving it. The well-known expression “to manage means to foresee” refers to the activities of specialists in various fields and is filled with more significant content in terms of responsibility.”

All management sciences that emerged in the mid-twentieth century are largely interconnected, and their specific names determine primarily those aspects of the management process on which the main emphasis is placed.

Decisions, as an organizational response to emerging problems, are a universal form of behavior for both individuals and social groups, and are explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity. A decision is a guide to action, selected from a variety of alternatives, formalized in the form of a work plan. In practice, a huge number of very diverse decisions are made, each with different characteristics. However, there are some common features that allow this set to be classified in a certain way (Appendix A). It is the decisions made by the leaders of any organization that determine not only the effectiveness of its activities, but also the possibility of sustainable development and survival in a rapidly developing world.

Making decisions, as well as the exchange of information, this integral part of any management function. The need for decision-making arises at all stages of the management process, is associated with all participants and aspects of management activity and is its pinnacle. This is why it is so important to understand the nature and essence of decisions.

Solution– the result of economic actions, measures taken by the leaders of the state, regions, regions, organizations as a result of the analysis of several options. In doing so, these persons are guided by considerations of expediency and take into account available resources and factors.

Modern management science, and with it the theory of management decisions, arose after the organization in the modern sense appeared.

Organizational decision– the choice made by the manager, used by him in the process of implementing managerial functions in solving organizational problems. An organizational decision facilitates progress towards the goals set.

Management decision– directive choice of targeted influence on the control object, which is based on an analysis of the situation and contains a program for achieving the goal.

Adoption management decision – the main decision in the technological management cycle. The management decision is made by the authorized line manager within the limits of the rights granted to him, the norms of the current legislation and the instructions of higher management bodies. The distinctive features of managerial (organizational) decisions are that they have the following characteristics: goals, consequences, division of labor and professionalism.

Management decision- this is a certain economic process carried out as part of the management of an organization, which has three stages - preparation, adoption and implementation of management decisions, which include, in addition to identifying the problem, formulating tasks, comparing alternative solutions, also drawing up a plan for implementing the solution and operational management implementation of solutions.

Object of management decisions are the types of activities of organizations:

Technical development of the organization;

Organization of main and auxiliary production;

Management activities;

Marketing activities;

Economic and financial development;

Organization wages and bonuses;

Social development;

Accounting activities;

Staffing and other activities.

Management decisions can be classified according to various criteria, for example:

1. by time management (strategic, tactical, operational);

3. by the degree of personnel participation (individual, corporate).

The classification according to the last criterion, namely the degree of personnel participation, is presented in Fig. 1.1.

A problem is a discrepancy between the actual or predicted values ​​of the parameters of the managed system and the management goals. Three reasons can lead to a problem situation:

Deviation of actual parameters from target parameters;

The possibility of such deviation in the future in the event of failure to take any preventive measures;

Changing management goals.

There are different types of problems. The most suitable for our purposes is the classification proposed by G. Simon, according to which all problems are divided into three classes:

1. well-structured or quantitatively formulated problems in which the essential dependencies are clarified so well that they can be expressed in numbers or symbols, that is, expressed in a numerical estimate;

2. unstructured or qualitatively expressed problems containing only a description of the most important resources, features and characteristics, the quantitative relationships between which are completely unknown;

3. weakly structured or mixed problems that contain both qualitative and quantitative elements, with the qualitative, little-known and uncertain aspects of the problems tending to dominate.

Although this classification is not stable and some problems may change their classification over time, it does provide a lot of insight.

Each individual management decision is unique, but the process of their formation and implementation is subject to internal logic, which is often called the “decision-making cycle” .

In the process of forming decisions in an organization, different sources highlight a different number of stages, for example:

1) identification of the problem to be solved (definition of the problem situation);

2) collection and processing of information for making management decisions;

3) organization of its execution.

To these main stages of developing management decisions you can add the following: obtaining information about the situation, developing an assessment system, developing scenarios for the development of the situation.

Similar steps can be found in a variety of articles and books - wherever we talk about a consistent approach to considering complex problems. The general recipes for “inventors” of creative solutions to fundamentally new problems are also very similar. The main differences arise on the issue of inclusion in the process of the stage associated with the implementation of the decision.

In Fig. Table 1.2 presents a classification of types of management decisions according to 12 criteria, including more than 40 types.

The management process is multifaceted, but a system of actions emerges clearly in it, which can roughly be called decision-making technology. Preparation, adoption and implementation of decisions as a process of managerial work of a manager have a certain technology - a set of consistently applied techniques and ways to achieve the goals of management activities. At the same time, the manager responsible for the development of the system is faced with many possible goals and a significant number of competing ways and means that can be used to achieve each individual goal. But, first of all, it is necessary to establish the content of the tasks that ensure the achievement of goals. These tasks can be presented in the form of a so-called “task tree”.

When preparing a decision, you should make sure that all the resources necessary for its implementation are available, while focusing on the predetermined goals and objectives of the organization.

Collect the necessary data(a raw array of facts and figures from various sources) and, based on their processing and analysis, obtain information about alternative solutions. The information must contain information about available resources (land, capital, etc.) and the need for them to implement each alternative, legal requirements and other necessary materials. High-quality information is not cheap, so you have to balance the costs of obtaining it with the expected effect.

Assess the possible consequences of implementing alternative solutions. In many cases, a manager's common sense and practical experience can replace missing or unreasonably expensive information;

The time spent analyzing alternatives depends on training, experience and education and is akin to an art. But there are cases when the choice of an alternative is ensured by a previously made decision.

Decide, consistent with the goals and objectives of the organization.

Implement the solution. The implementation of the plan requires the manager to have certain skills and abilities. In conditions of uncertainty or insufficient information, each specific decision can have a different effect depending on factors that are beyond the manager's competence. Possible adoption outcomes can be predicted using mathematical methods.

Take responsibility for the decision you make and not only be able to enjoy the results of your successful actions, but also be able to soberly assess and calmly accept the unfavorable consequences of your own mistakes. Often, a manager's inaction arises from his unwillingness to take responsibility for the decision made. A modern leader of an organization must clearly understand that he is responsible both for his actions and for his inaction.

Social responsibility – a personality trait acquired as a result of upbringing and taking into account the moral norms of society. The process of formation of social responsibility is influenced by:

The ability and ability of the individual to perform a task well and the ability to cope with problems;

Availability of resources to complete the task;

A given degree of responsibility for results.

The social responsibility of a manager is reflected in his decisions. Important parameters of social responsibility are breadth, time interval, importance attached, and personnel involvement.

Latitude defines the range of functions for which social responsibility is assumed. Time interval can be either indefinite or limited to a certain period. Attached meaning can be tracked by the priorities of allocated resources, i.e. when and how much is spent on social purposes. Personnel involvement reflects the level of their participation in the implementation of social goals. Social responsibility is assessed by public opinion and introduced as a parameter of a new management paradigm. The choice of management decisions depends not only on the intellectual, but also on the moral and ethical potential of the individual.

The moral character of a leader includes a system of qualities that are divided into general ones: patriotism, humanism, justice; specific: civic conscience, will, collectivism, responsibility, courage and integrity; specific: hard work, modesty, generosity, optimism, kindness. The level of development of moral qualities depends on the general culture of the leader .

The moral responsibility of a leader in decision-making lies in the fullest consideration of all opinions - specialists, staff, collegial bodies, which makes it possible to express a common opinion on the problem being solved, to cultivate common interest and responsibility for the implementation of decisions.

From a technological point of view, the decision-making process can be represented as a sequence of stages and procedures that have direct and feedback connections among themselves. In many foreign sources, the entire decision-making process in an organization is considered as a function of the problem, alternatives and implementation of the decision (Fig. 1.3). The decision maker must be included in the process of preparing, making and implementing a decision at all its main stages.

At the stage of preparing a management decision held economic analysis situations at the micro and macro level, including searching, collecting and processing information, as well as identifying and forming problems that require solutions.

At the decision-making stage the development and evaluation of alternative solutions and courses of action carried out on the basis of multivariate calculations is carried out; criteria for choosing the optimal solution are selected; choosing and making the best decision.

At the stage of implementation of the solution measures are taken to concretize the decision and bring it to the attention of the executors, the progress of its implementation is monitored, the necessary adjustments are made and an assessment is given of the result obtained from the implementation of the decision.

To increase the efficiency of implementation of management decisions made, it is recommended to adhere to the following recommendations:

1) objectively evaluate the experience and professionalism of performers;

2) motivate performers to implement management decisions in a high-quality manner;

3) seek strict implementation of the plan of organizational and technical measures to implement the decision.

Each management decision has its own specific result, therefore the goal of management activity is to find such forms, methods, means and tools that could help achieve the optimal result in specific conditions and circumstances.

“However, our modern reality is replete with facts of “unforeseen” consequences of decisions made at various levels of management - from the household to the political Olympus. The reasons are very different, but the result is the same - loss of human and material resources. All this inexorably testifies to the fact that it is precisely the ability to foresee that specialists, managers, and people in general lack today. Although there are many such facts when individual managers carry out foresight mainly on an empirical, intuitive level and achieve good results. But their activities could be more effective if the managerial foresight of these specialists had a systematic methodological and methodological basis.” .

Management decisions can be justified, made on the basis of economic analysis and multivariate calculation and foresight as the most important component of professional activity.

It is obvious that at each moment in time the manager is at different stages of the decision-making process on the problems that he is simultaneously considering. In addition, each decision situation may vary depending on the magnitude of potential gains or losses, the urgency of the action, or the degree of freedom to maneuver. Therefore, the leader of an organization who uses an orderly and consistent decision-making scheme is more likely to achieve good results (Fig.1.4).

A number of scientific methods have now been developed to prepare decisions so that managers can make informed decisions, choosing the best possible option. However, these methods are not yet actively used in management practice. This is explained by the fact that a significant part of managers, relying on their experience and their art of management, do not pay due attention to the study and implementation of scientific management methods. In fact, it is clear that it is the simultaneous use of art and scientific methods and approaches that gives high results in management activities.

The specialized scientific literature describes several expanded options for the management process. In our opinion, this issue was developed in sufficient detail by Yu.S. Solnyshkov in his book “Justification of decisions” .

In the business and scientific spheres, the term “decision making” is interpreted as a one-time act of final choice, approval of one of the possible options for action. Undoubtedly, decision-making is only the completion of a complex multi-stage process in which the need to influence the control object was first established, and then various methods of action were developed and evaluated. This process is called the development of a management decision (Fig. 1.4.).

There are two definitions of decision theory: broad and narrow. In the expanded definition, decision making is identified with the entire management process . In a narrow sense, decision making is understood as choosing the best from a variety of alternative options. Some authors do not agree with the narrow definition of decision-making theory; they consider it necessary to also include the execution of decisions made in this process. Monitoring and analysis of execution results is not limited to just choosing the best solution for targeted impact on the control object, which is based on an analysis of the situation and contains a program for achieving the goal.

The decision-making process by managers at various levels is almost always a formalized process, which necessarily includes such elements as problems, goals, alternatives, decisions and responsibility for decisions made.

Rice. 1.4. – Main stages of developing management decisions

Choosing a goal is the most critical stage in the process of developing and making management decisions. In accordance with the chosen goal, the organization's development strategy and tactics are formed, forecasts and action plans are developed, and the results of decisions made and actions taken are evaluated. In other words the goal is the core around which management activities are formed.

The easiest task is to make decisions based on mathematical calculations, if possible. But more often the manager is not able to analyze and clearly comprehend the intuitively made decision. Here it is useful to use a logical scheme that comprehensively uses normative and descriptive models: building complex models for justifying decisions, combining the use of complementary methods of structuring, characterization and optimization; a combination of formal and informal methods for substantiating decisions, involving the widespread use of expert assessments and human-machine procedures for preparing and making decisions.

In business practice, there are various kinds of restrictions that prevent effective management decision-making. For example: narrowing of powers of members of the organization, lack of financial resources, insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience, etc. For an alternative option for choosing a management decision, the manager needs to determine the standards by which to evaluate. These standards are called decision criteria.

There are five main features that characterize solutions (Figure 1.5).

Rice. 1.5. – Main features characterizing solutions

Importance determined by the amount of expected profit (or loss). Frequency– some decisions are made once in a lifetime , others - daily. Urgency– there are issues that require immediate solutions, while others can wait their turn for a long time. Correctability– some decisions can be easily corrected, others are either irreparable, or their change is associated with large losses. Number of alternatives– there are often problems that involve only two possible solutions (yes - no, buy - no buy), but there are situations when many alternatives arise .

Characterizing the levels of decisions made, experts identify two main ones: individual– characterized by the internal logic of the process itself, and collective – where interest shifts towards creating an environment around the decision-making process and is carried out with the help of specially created teams consisting of groups of specialists from various fields of activity. Decision-making in such a group leads to the emergence of a certain line of behavior for performers and managers . Any collective creativity is based on individual thought processes, the developed solutions are jointly evaluated and compared.

A group solution is preferable to an individual solution in the following cases:

If, for ethical reasons, the decision cannot be made behind the scenes;

If their independent expert assessment is useful for making a decision;

When the manager finds it difficult to offer alternative solutions in sufficient quantities, etc.

Group management decision making also has a negative side:

Can lead to conformity and “group like-mindedness”;

Excessive optimism and illusions of team independence;

Collective aspiration to sweep away all objections contrary to the group;

Unconditional faith in the principles accepted by the collective, open pressure on those who resist group opinion, the illusion of unanimity based on the principle of the overwhelming majority, etc.

To avoid these negative consequences and the emergence of “group like-mindedness,” the leader must encourage different opinions and not suppress the voice of the minority; it is better to take a neutral position and maintain impartiality.

Gradation of decisions made according to the number of alternatives, based on the development of L. Plunkett and G. Hale , can be represented in the following form:

1) binary decision (there are two alternatives to action - “yes” or “no”);

2) standard solution, in which a small choice of alternatives is considered;

3) multi-alternative solution (there is a very large but finite number of alternatives);

4) continuous solution, in which the choice is made from an infinite number of states of continuously changing controlled quantities.

In the process of identifying and limiting alternatives, the following requirements must be taken into account:

Mutual exclusivity of alternatives;

Ensuring the same conditions for describing alternatives;

Completeness of the set of alternatives .

Their creation and effective functioning requires significant time and financial costs, a creative approach, and large amounts of information require the use of modern computer technologies.

Key points that complicate the development and decision-making process :

Lack and bias of information;

Errors of own experience and preferences;

Weak own management abilities;

Inability to organize the processes of decision making and implementation.

1) To ensure the effectiveness of the development and decision-making process, the following recommendations must be followed:

1) people never take responsibility voluntarily, and this should not be expected of them;

2) approval processes should not be left to chance at all stages, including meetings and meetings, in order to avoid interference of disturbing factors in this process;

3) you can never rely on memory for everything; many things must be recorded in a notebook, laptops;

4) given that the highest level of decision-making skills is required by politicians, strategists, military personnel, and business administration specialists, it is necessary to master and expand knowledge on the theory of developing management decisions to achieve this level.

Management decisions in the economic activities of an organization are based on planning, regulatory, technological, accounting and analytical information. Evaluation of the results of management decisions and responsibility for their implementation are verified using internal reporting data. Analytical calculations made using specific techniques are used to plan and coordinate the future development of the organization. Decisions made must necessarily be based on reliable, current and predictable information, analysis of all factors influencing decisions, taking into account the anticipation of its possible consequences.

To understand the technology for developing and making management decisions, it is necessary to formulate the fundamental requirements for information support for management decisions (Table 1.1).

The totality of all information necessary for making management decisions is called information system. It usually consists of the following subsystems:

Internal information;

External information;

Collection of primary information;

Information analysis.

Primary data is information that has just been obtained to address the specific problem or question under study. They are necessary in cases where a thorough analysis of secondary information does not provide the necessary information.

The main methods for collecting primary information include:

1. Structured and unstructured.

2. Hidden and unhidden.

3. Personal (interviews) and non-personal (questionnaires, computers).

Before the actual collection of primary data, it is necessary to develop a structure or plan to be used in collecting information.

Secondary information is data collected previously for purposes other than those related to solving the problem under study.. Regardless of whether it is sufficient for a decision, its low cost and relatively quick availability require that primary data not be collected until a thorough search of secondary information has been completed.

In practice, these subsystems are often considered as independent information systems. Types of information for making management decisions are presented in Fig. 1.6.

Information, used in control systems, must satisfy certain requirements. These requirements include:

1. Necessary and sufficient quantity and quality of information, and the qualitative side is of dominant importance.

2. Reliability and accuracy of information. If the information is insufficient or approximate, a decision can be made with disastrous consequences. Therefore, it is absolutely unacceptable to use unreliable and inaccurate information. The contradiction lies in the fact that absolutely reliable and accurate information does not exist, and the information that approaches it is of little use for making management decisions - it becomes outdated quite quickly. The unreliability of information is determined not only by the sources of its receipt, incorrect or ineffective methods of processing it, but also by the goals of its transformation and the interpretation of its application.

3. Timely receipt of information. The requirement for earlier submission of information can often be associated with significant material and financial costs (increased computer processing speed and communication channel capacity, expert processing of information arrays, etc.). On the other hand, belated information is also of no practical interest.

4. Completeness of information. The manager must have sufficient information at his disposal to ensure the effective solution of all problems. Reduced (truncated) information can dramatically reduce management efficiency or even lead to management errors. At the same time, the requirement for completeness of information may border on its redundancy. Both the completeness of information and its incompleteness do not have objective criteria and limitations, which should not be attributed to the advantages or disadvantages of information. This is an objective contradiction that is resolved in the process of creative work of the leader.

5. Usefulness of information. To make a decision, certain, specific information is needed, the rest forms information noise. Extracting useful information from noise is complex and expensive analytical work.

6. Technological characteristics of information, which should include the density of its placement, the ability to save in various conditions, the speed of processing, retrieval, printing, presentation, forms of service, etc. The technical and technological improvement of systems, the unification of terminology, the procedure for drawing up documents and their presentation are very important here. Information should be divided by levels and levels of management, as well as by normative, reference, calculation and analytical and other areas. An important characteristic is the noise immunity of information - the ability to withstand both active and passive interference. High noise immunity ensures stable control and its necessary confidentiality (preservation of commercial and state secrets). The cost of information in management systems is constantly increasing, which obliges us to strive to constantly improve the efficiency of its acquisition and use.

The construction of any management system includes three mandatory stages:

Creation of the information space necessary to determine control actions;

Development of a management synthesis methodology (in our case, automated management decision-making);

Creation of forms (including on-screen) for presenting information about recommended management decisions and the rationale for the recommendations made.

In the absence of sufficient information for an accurate calculation, foresight can help. Naturally, the attitude towards foresight does not appear in the subject of management “out of thin air”. It arises on the basis of the constant accumulation of knowledge and search experience.

“Although the foresight mindset is implemented on an intuitive level, it also has a really “felt” logical side. Its meaning is a manifestation of an attitude toward dialogical thinking, that is, the formation of answers to subconsciously arising questions: is it possible to modify a system component by changing its quantitative and qualitative parameters, functions, shape, method of movement, speed, color, etc. etc.)? What can be increased (reduced) in an object? What can be replaced in an object - ingredient, process, energy source, direction of movement, design? What can be transformed in an object - the relationship of components, layout, sequence of operations, operating mode? What can be attached to an object? Answers to such questions are necessary material for the formation of primary image problems, modified later in image problematic situation" .

It should be noted that any technology is only a tool that helps realize a holistic vision of the goals towards which the organization is moving.

Over the past 20 years, the Nobel Prize in economics has been awarded twice for work on improving the generally accepted concept of decision-making - in 1978 to G. Simon for his study of the decision-making process (the main idea is to find solutions acceptable to everyone in economic organizations); in 1986 to J. Buchan for the development of the foundations of the theory of economic and political decision-making (the basic idea of ​​decision-making based on the interests of the persons participating in this process)

Skidanov I.P. Managerial foresight (methodology, diagnostics, didactics). – SPb.: SPbGASU, 2006.– P. 5

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Kuznetsova L.A. Development of management decisions: textbook. Benefit. – Chelyabinsk: Chelyabinsk State University, 2001.

Skidanov I.P. Managerial foresight (methodology, diagnostics, didactics). - St. Petersburg: SPbGASU, 2006. - 220 p.

Here it is necessary to note that one should not allow the concept of “foresight” to be replaced (identified) by the concept of “prediction”, “prophecy”, etc.

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In any creative team, as research shows, there are about 5% creative individuals, 25% scholars, 20% analysts and 50% ordinary performers. Leaders of creative groups are characterized as democrats, pessimists, dictators or organizers.

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A person can be called a manager when he makes organizational decisions and implements them through other people, while taking into account their own goals and interests. Decision making, like the exchange of information, is a fundamental component of any management activity.

A decision is the choice of the most acceptable alternative from a possible variety of options.

An organizational decision is a choice that a manager makes to fulfill his responsibilities as defined by his position. The purpose of an organizational decision is to ensure the organization’s consistent movement towards its intended goals.

Organizational decisions can be programmed or unprogrammed. Programmed decisions are those that accompany the achievement of a result and are determined by a certain, already worked out sequence of steps, decisions or actions. Unprogrammed decisions are those that arise as a result of a new and unusual situation.

Compromise is an agreement reached through acceptable mutual concessions.

An intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling, an insight.

Judgmental decisions are choices based on knowledge or experience.

There are several types of solutions typical for the management sector:

1. During the planning process, the following decisions are made: a decision about the ultimate goal and the nature of the business; about goals; about interaction with the external environment; about the strategy and tactics that are chosen by the organization to achieve its goals.
2. In the process of organizing the company’s activities, the following decisions are made: on structuring the organization’s work; on coordinating the functioning of various blocks; on the distribution of powers between department heads; about the structure of the organization when the external environment changes.
3. In the process of motivating staff, the following decisions are made: about the needs of subordinates; about meeting their needs; about the performance of subordinates and their job satisfaction.
4. During the control process, the following decisions are made: on measuring work results; on the evaluation of these results; about the extent to which the organization's goals have been achieved; about adjusting goals.

A rational decision is a decision that is based on the basis of an analytical process, and is often independent of previous experience.

Problem Solving Stages

Diagnosing a complex problem is recognizing and identifying the causes of difficulties and the available opportunities to overcome them. Signs of problems in an organization include: low profits; relatively small sales of products; low labor productivity and product quality; excessive costs in the production process, various conflicts in the organization and high staff turnover. Identifying these symptoms allows you to identify common problems in a given organization. For a more detailed analysis of existing problems, it is necessary to collect preliminary information regarding the state of the external and internal environment of the organization.

The reasons for the difficulties most often depend on the specific situation and specific managers: perhaps it is an insufficient number of workers with the necessary qualifications; lack of advanced technology for both management of various processes associated with the functioning of the organization, and the production process itself; intense competition; sometimes even the current laws and regulations in a given country.

Formulating a set of alternatives or alternative solutions is a fundamentally important point. Very often, ill-considered immediate actions lead to aggravation of this problem. It is advisable to identify the maximum possible actions that would help solve this problem, and then rank the possible actions according to their effectiveness and feasibility. Consider the process of analyzing alternatives:

a) If the problem has been correctly defined, the alternatives have been carefully weighed, and they have been given reasonable evaluation, decision making is relatively simple.

b) if the problem turns out to be very complex, and possible alternatives do not correspond to the optimal (desired) result, in this case, existing experience in this field of activity plays a significant role.

A decision will be better served if it is agreed upon by those directly affected or those who helped prepare the decision. In this regard, for the successful implementation of any significant decision, it is advisable to involve the largest number of employees of the organization in its development.

After the decision has been made and implementation has begun, feedback is required. A control system is necessary to ensure optimal execution of a given process or activity. Feedback allows the manager to partially correct the decision made and contribute to its better implementation.

Evaluating the results of implementing decisions allows us to take into account the existing experience of miscalculations and shortcomings in subsequent work.

There are other factors that influence decision making.

The manager’s personal assessments of the importance of a given problem often contain subjective judgments. Each person has his own assessment system, which determines his actions and influences the decision he makes. The approach to making management decisions is most often based on a certain value system. In this regard, a manager who puts maximizing labor productivity by any means at the forefront of his activities often forgets about the problems of organizing an optimal, efficient work process for employees. This may be expressed in the lack of proper working conditions, opportunities for recreation, and good design of work premises.

Decision making is influenced by behavioral restrictions, that is, factors that complicate interpersonal and intra-organizational communications. For example, managers often have different perceptions of the existence and severity of a problem. They may perceive constraints and alternatives differently. This often leads to the emergence of various conflicts between them in the process of making and implementing decisions.

In an organization, all decisions are usually interconnected. Often an important decision builds on several previous decisions, and in turn creates alternatives for subsequent decisions. This ability to see the interconnectedness of decisions is one of the main criteria for selecting and appointing senior managers. Managers with this ability are often candidates for promotion.

Methods of analysis and problem solving

Models and methods of decision making

The ability to make decisions is necessary for the implementation of management functions, therefore the decision-making process is the basis of management theory. As a science, this direction originated in England, during the Second World War, when a group of scientists got back to solving a complex military problem - the optimal placement of various units civil defense and firing positions of his army. In the 50s, this theory was modernized and began to be used to solve problems in civil industry.

Its distinctive features are:

1. The use of the scientific method, that is, observation, formulation of a hypothesis, confirmation of the validity of the hypothesis.
2. System orientation.
3. Using different models.

The simulation process is often used to solve complex control problems because it avoids the significant difficulties and costs of conducting real-life experiments. The basis of modeling is the need for relative simplification of a real life situation or event; at the same time, this simplification should not violate the basic patterns of functioning of the system being studied.

Types of models: physical, analog (organizational chart, graph), mathematical (use of symbols to describe actions or objects).

The process of building models consists of several stages: problem statement; building a model; checking the model for the accuracy of the description of a given process, object or phenomenon; application of the model; updating the model during research or implementation.

The effectiveness of the model can be reduced due to a number of potential errors, which include unreliable initial assumptions, information limitations, misunderstanding of the model by the users themselves, excessive cost of creating the model, etc.

Game theory is often used in modeling. It was originally developed by the military to take into account possible enemy actions. In business, it is used to model the behavior of a competitor, especially often in connection with problems of changing pricing policy.

Queuing theory model (optimal service model). This model is used to determine the optimal number of service channels relative to the demand for those channels.

Inventory management model. This model is often used to optimize order fulfillment time, as well as to determine the required resources and storage space for a particular product. The purpose of this model is to minimize the negative consequences of the accumulation or shortage of certain stocks of products or resources.

Linear programming model. This model is used to determine the optimal allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.

Simulation modeling. It is often used in situations that are too complex to use mathematical methods (a marketer can create a model for modifying consumer needs due to changes in the prices of goods on the market and their design).

Economic analysis is a form of modeling. An example would be an economic analysis of the efficiency of a particular company.

Quantitative forecasting methods.

They can be used for forecasting when the company's activities in the past had certain trends that can and should be continued in the future, and there is not enough information to identify trends in the forecast period under consideration.

One of the methods for such forecasting is time series analysis. It is based on the assumption that the patterns of the past can be used to predict the future. This method identifies trends from the past and projects them into the future.

The cause-and-effect method is used in situations where there are several unknowns. This is the study of the statistical relationship between the factor under consideration and other variables.

Other qualitative forecasting methods.

Jury's opinion. Its essence is to combine and average the opinions of experts in a given field.

A method of researching sales information, that is, when sales agents, based on their experience, predict demand in a specific target market.

Expectations model. It is based on a survey of consumers and summarizing their opinions.

Delphi method. Its essence lies in the fact that experts fill out special questionnaires on the problem under consideration. Each of them individually creates their own forecast. These forecasts are then passed on to all the experts taking part in the discussion. They get to know the opinions of their colleagues. and perhaps adjust their previous forecast based on new ideas or information. This procedure is repeated three to four times until eventually all experts reach a consensus.

How to conduct meetings

A few rules for holding meetings:

The leader interviews each participant regarding the issues being discussed;
- the problem is entered into the general list and numbered;
- the list is posted in a visible place;
- everyone speaks freely and unhindered;
- if the process is inactive, it is better to postpone it to another day.

Round-robin system for holding meetings:

There are subgroups of three to four people;
- everyone writes down two or three ideas on a card;
- cards are exchanged;
- everyone complements and develops the ideas of others;
- after three or four times of exchange, each subgroup draws up its own consolidated list of ideas;
- everyone reports on their work in subgroups.

Prioritization:

Each person is given five votes;
- he can give all votes for one idea or one for each, or in some other way at his discretion;
- ideas are read out under their numbers;
- group members vote by show of hands;
- the number of fingers shown on the hand indicates the number of votes;
- votes are counted;
- checks whether the total number of votes corresponds to a given number;
- a second round is held - the ideas that received the most votes are considered;
- the process is repeated several times;
- as a result, a common opinion is revealed regarding the idea that received the highest priority.

It is extremely important to group the list of ways to solve the problem. This clarifies the variety of possible approaches when it comes to ways to solve a specific problem.

1. TECHNOLOGY AND PROCEDURES FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

1.6. Decision making based on information systems and controlling

1.6.1. The role of information in decision making

in strategic management

In modern business conditions, the role of effective management based on reliable information increases many times over. Management errors based on insufficient or misinterpreted data can lead to the collapse of even large companies. The most interesting technologies and rules of management and planning are provided by strategic management, which deals with the development and implementation of the company's strategy. There are many definitions of this concept, but in a general sense, strategy is a long-term plan for managing a company, aimed at strengthening its position, satisfying customers and achieving its goals. Executives (managers) develop strategy to determine what direction the company will take and make informed decisions when choosing a course of action. The choice of a specific strategy by managers means that from all the possible development paths and methods of action open to the company, it is decided to choose one strategic direction in which the company will develop. Without a strategy, a manager has no thought-out plan of action, no guide to the business world, and no unified program for achieving the desired results.

The company management plan covers all main functions and divisions: supply, production, finance, marketing, personnel, R&D. Everyone has a specific role to play in this strategy. Making strategic choices means tying together business decisions and competitive actions across the company into a single node. This unity of actions and approaches reflects the current strategy of the company. New actions and approaches being discussed using all available information will show possible ways to change and transform the current strategy.

A good strategic vision prepares a company for the future, sets long-term directions for development, and defines the company's intention to take specific business positions. In other words, strategic management views an enterprise as a complex system, which in turn operates in even larger systems: target market, industry, national market, etc.

Today, strategic management is a very quickly and dynamically developing scientific and practical activity, which is not surprising, because its development is determined by the needs of the modern market. Companies around the world are using new methods and tools of strategic management in order to reconsider their approaches to doing business, according to area of ​​activity, ensuring competitiveness and achieving better results in their field.

One of the most powerful tools in the hands of a manager is information. Effective management is impossible without collecting information and processing it using various methods. Methods for obtaining information are varied and are not the subject of consideration in this work. Of much greater interest are the methods of its processing and targeted distribution to recipients. Methods for processing and analyzing economic information constitute the essence of econometrics. The second is the question of building an integrated information system, aimed at solving problems facing the enterprise and being a reflection of ongoing business processes.

The role of strategic management and planning is great. Good management today certainly requires managers to have strategic thinking and the ability to formulate, develop a strategy and, most importantly, successfully implement it. Managers have to think globally (that is, without abstracting from external and internal factors) about the situation in which the company finds itself and the impact that changing conditions have on it.

A modern manager must have extraordinary analytical skills that would allow him to adequately evaluate current and specially collected information relating to the entire range of external and internal factors. This is necessary in order to set realistic goals, adjust them (goals) in time and, as a result, adjust the means of achieving them.

In other words, strategic management is the foundation of an overall approach to managing the entire company. One CEO put it well: “Basically, our competitors know the same fundamental concepts, methods, and approaches that we do, and they are as well equipped to follow them as we are. Often the difference between their success and ours is the relative care and discipline with which they and we develop and execute our strategies for the future.”

The advantages of a strategic approach to management (as opposed to free improvisation, intuition or inactivity) based on the intensive use of information systems are:

ensuring that the organization's ideas are focused on the key strategy question “what are we going to do and what are we achieving?”

the need for managers to more clearly respond to emerging changes, new opportunities and threatening trends;

the opportunity for managers to evaluate alternative options for capital investment and staff expansion, i.e. wisely transfer resources to strategically sound and highly effective projects;

the ability to combine decisions of managers at all levels of management related to strategy.

Summarizing all of the above, we can draw the following conclusion: strategic management is a systematic approach to enterprise management which is the most effective.

1.6.2. The essence of controlling

Today there is no unambiguous definition of the concept of “controlling,” but almost no one denies that this is a new management concept generated by the practice of modern management. Controlling (from the English control - management, regulation, management, control) is far from being limited to control. This new concept of system management of an organization is based on the desire to ensure the successful functioning of the organizational system (enterprises, trading companies, banks, etc.) in the long term by:

adapting strategic goals to changing environmental conditions;

coordination of operational plans with the strategic plan for the development of the organizational system;

coordination and integration of operational plans for various business processes;

creating a system for providing managers with information for various levels of management at optimal intervals;

creating a system for monitoring the implementation of plans, adjusting their content and implementation deadlines;

adaptation of the organizational structure of enterprise management in order to increase its flexibility and ability to quickly respond to changing requirements of the external environment.

One of the main reasons for the emergence and implementation of the controlling concept was the need for systemic integration of various aspects of business process management in the organizational system. Controlling provides a methodological and instrumental basis to support the basic functions of management: planning, control, accounting and analysis, as well as assessing the situation to make management decisions.

It should be emphasized that controlling is not a system that automatically ensures the success of an enterprise by freeing managers from management functions. This is only a management tool, but a very effective one.

The key components of the controlling concept are:

orientation towards the effective operation of the organization in a relatively long-term perspective - a philosophy of profitability, the formation of an organizational structure focused on achieving strategic and tactical goals;

creation of an information system adequate to the tasks of target management;

dividing controlling tasks into cycles, which ensures iterative planning, monitoring execution and making corrective decisions.

Controlling functions and tasks. Controlling as a management system concept served as a response to changes in the external conditions of the functioning of organizations (enterprises). There has been an evolution of the organization's management functions. Planning for individual aspects was transformed into comprehensive program-target planning, sales and marketing management - into marketing, accounting and production accounting - into a control and regulation system. In general, the observed evolution of organizational management functions with their integration into the controlling system reflects the main trend of an integrated approach to management.

Controlling is focused primarily on supporting processes decision making. It must ensure the adaptation of the enterprise's traditional accounting system to information needs officials decision makers, i.e. Controlling functions include the creation, processing, verification and presentation of system management information. Controlling also supports and coordinates the processes of planning, information provision, control and adaptation.

The goals of controlling, as an area of ​​activity, directly follow from the goals of the organization and can be expressed in economic terms, for example, in achieving a certain level of profit, profitability or productivity of the organization at a given level of liquidity.

Controlling functions are determined by the goals set for the organization and include those types of management activities that ensure the achievement of these goals. This includes: accounting, support for the planning process, monitoring the implementation of plans, assessing ongoing processes, identifying deviations, their causes and developing recommendations for management to eliminate the reasons that caused these deviations.

In the field of accounting, controlling tasks include creating a system for collecting and processing information essential for making management decisions at different levels of management. This is necessary for the development and further maintenance of a system for maintaining internal records of information about the flow of technological processes. Important are the selection or development of accounting methods, as well as criteria for assessing the activities of the enterprise as a whole and its individual divisions.

Support for the planning process consists of performing the following controlling tasks:

formation and development of a comprehensive planning system;

development of planning methods;

determination of information necessary for planning, sources of information and ways to obtain it.

The controlling system informationally supports the development of basic plans for the enterprise (sales, liquidity, investments, etc.), coordinates individual plans in terms of time and content, checks the plans for completeness and feasibility, and allows the creation of a single operational (annual) plan for the enterprise. The controlling system determines how and when to plan, and also evaluates the feasibility of implementing planned actions.

The controlling service does not determine what to plan, but advises how and when to plan and assesses the feasibility of implementing planned activities. Responsibility for the implementation of plans remains within the competence of line managers.

When providing analytical information to the organization's management, the tasks of controlling include:

standardization of information channels and media;

choice of information processing methods.

The controlling system must ensure the collection, processing and provision to management of information essential for making management decisions.

In each individual case, the functions of the controlling service depend on many circumstances, but if we generalize the existing practice of enterprises, we can obtain an ideal list of the main functions and tasks of controlling, presented below.

We divide the main functions and tasks of controlling into the following groups: accounting, planning, control and regulation, information and analytical support, special functions. Let us describe the composition of each of these groups.

collection and processing of information;

development and maintenance of an internal accounting system;

unification of methods and criteria for assessing the activities of an organization and its divisions.

Planning:

information support in the development of basic plans (sales, production, investment, procurement);

formation and improvement of the entire “architecture” of the planning system;

establishing information and time requirements for individual steps in the planning process;

coordination of the information exchange process;

coordination and aggregation of individual plans by time and content;

checking proposed plans for completeness and feasibility;

drawing up a master plan for the enterprise.

Control and regulation:

determination of quantities controlled in time and content;

comparison of planned and actual values ​​to measure and evaluate the degree of goal achievement;

determination of permissible limits of deviations of values;

analysis of deviations, interpretation of the reasons for deviations of the plan from the fact and development of proposals to reduce deviations.

Information and analytical support:

development of information system architecture;

standardization of information media and channels;

provision of digital materials that would allow for control and management of the organization;

collection and systematization of the most significant data for decision-making;

development of tools for planning, control and decision-making;

consultations on the selection of corrective measures and solutions;

ensuring cost-effective operation of the information system.

Special Features:

collection and analysis of data on the external environment: the state of financial markets, industry conditions, government economic programs, etc.;

comparison with competitors;

justification for the feasibility of merging with other companies or opening (closing) branches;

Conducting cost estimates for special orders;

calculations of the effectiveness of investment projects, etc.

Based on the above list of functions and tasks of controlling, one can quite clearly imagine the scope of its application. The scope of controlling functions implemented in organizations depends mainly on the following factors:

economic condition of the organization;

understanding by management and/or owners of the organization of the importance and usefulness of implementing controlling functions;

size of the organization (number of employees, volume of production);

level of production diversification, range of products;

the current level of competition;

qualifications of management personnel;

qualifications of the controlling service employees.

In large organizations, it is advisable to create a specialized controlling service. Small organizations, as a rule, do not have such a service in their structure. In small enterprises, the main controlling functions are performed either by the head of the company or his deputy. At the same time, many tasks are integrated and simplified. For example, the tasks of developing plans, coordinating them and checking for feasibility can be considered as a single task if it is performed by the head of the enterprise himself. Small enterprises very rarely solve the problem of buying other companies or selling branches. In a medium-sized enterprise with single-industry production, the scope of functions and tasks of accounting, planning and reporting will naturally be smaller compared to a multi-industry enterprise.

In the context of the deteriorating economic situation at the enterprise, which is manifested in a decrease in the level of liquidity and profitability, controlling services are expected to provide more services for coordinating plans, analyzing the reasons for deviations of plans from reality, as well as recommendations for ensuring survival in the near future.

1.6.3. Business reengineering

To successfully implement changes planned in a company, it is necessary to clearly understand that each business unit requires continuous design. Continuous engineering involves approaching business as a process. A process is a sequence of economic acts (tasks, work, relationships) determined in advance by business goals. It is sometimes said that a business process is a set of steps that a company takes from one state to another, or from “input” to “output”. The inputs and outputs here are not parts of the company or its divisions, but events. The overall management of business and business processes is called “business engineering,” which involves the ongoing design of processes—determining inputs, outputs, and sequences of steps—within a business unit.

Nowadays, the concept of business reengineering is becoming popular in the design of business processes. The founder of reengineering theory, M. Hammer, defined this concept as follows: “a fundamental rethinking and radical change in decisions about business processes in order to achieve dramatic improvements in critical performance indicators such as costs, quality, service and speed.”

Reengineering has the following properties:

he abandons outdated rules and regulations and begins the business process as if from a “clean slate”, this allows him to overcome the negative impact of dogmas;

he neglects the existing systems, structures and procedures of the company and radically changes, reinvents the methods of economic activity - if it is impossible to remake your business environment, then you can remake your business;

it leads to significant changes in performance indicators.

Reengineering is used in three main situations:

in conditions where the company is in a state of deep crisis;

in conditions where the current position of the company is satisfactory, but the forecasts for its activities are quite unfavorable;

in situations where aggressive, prosperous organizations seek to increase their lead over competitors and create unique competitive advantages.

Main stages of reengineering:

formation of the desired image of the company (the basic elements of the construction are the company’s strategy, main guidelines, ways to achieve them);

creating a model of the company’s existing business (to create the model, the results of an analysis of the organizational environment and controlling data are used; processes that need restructuring are identified);

development of a new business model - direct reengineering (selected processes are redesigned, new personnel functions are formed, new information systems are created, a new model is tested);

introduction of a new business model.

1.6.4. Enterprise Management Information Systems (EMIS)

Let's start with the definitions necessary to understand further discussions.

Information is information about the surrounding world (objects, phenomena, events, processes, etc.), which reduces the existing degree of uncertainty, incomplete knowledge, alienated from their creator and become messages (expressed in a certain language in the form of signs, including recorded on a tangible medium) that can be reproduced by transmission by people orally, in writing or by other means.

The information allows organizations to:

exercise control over the current state of the organization, its divisions and processes in them;

determine the strategic, tactical and operational goals and objectives of the organization;

make informed and timely decisions;

coordinate the actions of departments in achieving goals.

Information need is a conscious understanding of the difference between individual knowledge about a subject and the knowledge accumulated by society.

Data is information reduced to the level of an object of certain transformations.

Document – ​​an information message in paper, audio, electronic or other form, drawn up according to certain rules, certified in the prescribed manner.

Document flow is a system for creating, interpreting, transmitting, receiving, archiving documents, as well as monitoring their execution and protecting them from unauthorized access.

Economic information is a set of information about socio-economic processes that serve to manage these processes and groups of people in the production and non-production sphere.

Information resources – the entire available amount of information in the information system.

Information technology is a system of methods and methods for collecting, transmitting, accumulating, processing, storing, presenting and using information.

Automation is the replacement of human activity with the work of machines and mechanisms.

Information system (IS) is an information circuit together with means of collecting, transmitting, processing and storing information, as well as personnel performing these actions with information.

The mission of information systems is the production of information necessary for the organization to ensure effective management of all its resources, the creation of an information and technological environment for the management of the organization.

Typically, management systems have three levels: strategic, tactical and operational. Each of these management levels has its own tasks, when solving which there is a need for relevant data; this data can be obtained by querying the information system. These requests are directed to the corresponding information in the information system. Information technologies make it possible to process requests and, using available information, generate a response to these requests. Thus, at each level of management, information appears that serves as the basis for making appropriate decisions.

As a result of the application of information technologies to information resources, some new information or information in a new form is created. These products of the information system are called information products and services.

An information product or service is a specific service when some information content in the form of a set of data, generated by the manufacturer for distribution in tangible and intangible form, is provided for use by the consumer.

Currently, there is an opinion about an information system as a system implemented using computer technology. This is wrong. Like information technologies, information systems can function both with and without the use of technical means. This is a matter of economic feasibility.

Advantages of manual (paper) systems:

ease of implementation of existing solutions;

they are easy to understand and require minimal training to master;

no technical skills required;

they are typically flexible and adaptable to suit business processes.

Advantages of automated systems:

in an automated IS, it becomes possible to holistically and comprehensively present everything that happens to the organization, since all economic factors and resources are displayed in a single information form in the form of data.

Corporate IP is usually considered as a certain set of private solutions and components of their implementation, including:

unified information storage database;

a set of application systems created by different companies and using different technologies.

The company's information system (in particular, ISMS) must:

allow the accumulation of certain experience and knowledge, generalize them in the form of formalized procedures and solution algorithms;

constantly improve and develop;

quickly adapt to changes in the external environment and new needs of the organization;

meet the urgent requirements of a person, his experience, knowledge, psychology.

Creating an enterprise management information system is a rather time-consuming and resource-intensive process, in which four main stages can be distinguished.

1. Project sketch. A detailed description of the goals and objectives of the project, available resources, any restrictions, etc.

2. Project evaluation. It determines what the system will do, how it will operate, what hardware and software will be used, and how it will be maintained. A list of requirements for the system is being prepared, and the needs of regular users are being studied.

3. Construction and testing. Personnel must ensure that the system is easy to use before it becomes the mainstay of operations.

Project management and risk assessment. The project is not complete until the project manager can demonstrate that the system works reliably.

The life cycle of an IS is the period of creation and use of an IS, covering its various states, starting from the moment the need for this IS arises and ending with the moment of its complete decommissioning.

The IS life cycle is divided into the following stages:

pre-project survey;

design;

IP development;

putting the IS into operation;

exploitation of IP;

completion of operation of the IS.

So, an enterprise management information system (EMIS) is an operating environment that is capable of providing managers and specialists with up-to-date and reliable information about all business processes of the enterprise necessary for planning operations, their execution, registration and analysis. In other words, a modern PMIS is a system that contains a description of the full market cycle - from business planning to analysis of the results of the enterprise. In reality, they often start with partial computerization of information processes, for example, within the framework of accounting or warehouse management.

1.6.5.PMIS tasks

Enterprise management in modern conditions requires increasing efficiency. Therefore, the use of enterprise management information systems (EMIS) is one of the most important levers for business development.

Particular tasks solved by the PMIS are largely determined by the area of ​​activity, structure and other features of specific enterprises. As examples, we can refer to the experience of creating an information management system for an enterprise - a telecom operator and the experience of implementing SAP R/3 systems by partners at a number of enterprises in the CIS and non-CIS countries. At the same time, an approximate list of management tasks that an ISMS should solve at various levels of enterprise management and for its various services can now be considered generally accepted among specialists. It is shown in Table 1. When solving these problems, various methods of decision theory are widely used, including econometric and optimization.

Table 1.

Main tasks of the ISMS

	Management levels and services	Problems to be solved
1	Enterprise management	providing reliable information about the current financial condition of the company and preparing a forecast for the future; Ensuring control over the work of enterprise services; Ensuring clear coordination of work and resources; Providing operational information about negative trends, their causes and possible measures to correct the situation; formation of a complete picture of the cost of the final product (service) by cost components
	Financial and accounting services	Full control over the movement of funds; Implementation of the accounting policies required by management; Prompt determination of receivables and payables; Monitoring the implementation of contracts, estimates and plans; Control over financial discipline; Tracking the movement of inventory flows; Prompt receipt of a complete set of financial reporting documents
3	Manufacturing control	control over the implementation of production orders; Monitoring the state of production facilities; Control over technological discipline; Maintaining documents to support production orders (fence maps, route maps); prompt determination of the actual cost of production orders
	Marketing Services	Control over the promotion of new products to the market; Analysis of the sales market with the aim of expanding it; Maintaining sales statistics; Information support for price and discount policies; Using a database of standard letters for mailing; control over the fulfillment of deliveries to the customer on time while optimizing transportation costs
5	Sales and supply services	Maintaining databases of goods, products, services; Planning delivery times and transportation costs; Optimization of transport routes and transportation methods; Computerized contract management
6	Warehouse accounting services	Management of a multi-echelon warehouse structure; Operational search for goods (products) in warehouses; Optimal placement in warehouses taking into account storage conditions; revenue management taking into account quality control; inventory

1.6.6. Place of PMIS in the controlling system

Management information systems are computer support for controlling, which in turn is the main supplier of information for enterprise management. The purpose of information support for controlling is to provide management with information about the current state of affairs of the enterprise and predict the consequences of changes in the internal or external environment. The main tasks of controlling are presented in Table 2.

Table 2.

Main tasks of controlling

		Main tasks to be solved
	Controlling in a management system	The goal of strategic controlling is to ensure the continued successful functioning of the organization. The main task of operational controlling is to provide methodological, informational and instrumental support to enterprise managers
	Financial controlling	Maintaining profitability and ensuring liquidity of the enterprise
	Controlling in production	Information support for production and management processes
	Marketing Controlling	Information support for effective management to meet customer needs
	Controlling resource provision	Information support for the process of acquiring production resources, analysis of purchased resources, calculation of the efficiency of the supply department
	Controlling in the field of logistics	Current control over the efficiency of storage and transportation of material resources

Let's compare (in accordance with Table 3) the main tasks that are solved by PMIS and controlling (see Table 1 and Table 2).

Table 3.

Comparison of PMIS and controlling tasks

MIS tasks solved for	Controlling tasks solved
Enterprise manuals	Controlling in a management system
Financial and accounting services	Financial controlling
Production management	Controlling in production
Marketing Services	Marketing Controlling
Sales and supply services	Controlling resource provision
Warehouse accounting services	Controlling in the field of logistics

From Table 3 it can be seen that the ISMS tasks solved for each level of management and service of the enterprise correspond to the tasks solved by controlling in one or another area of ​​the enterprise’s activity (namely, controlling in the management system, financial controlling, etc.).

If we consider the structure of the ISMS, we can distinguish 5 main modules that are present in each information system. These are financial and economic management, accounting and personnel, warehouse, production, trade (sales).

An analysis of the 27 most famous PMIS presented on the Russian market (according to Internet data) was carried out in 2002 by E.A. Guskova. The results are presented in Table 4. We can conclude that only a few have a built-in controlling module (see Table 4).

Table 4.

Availability of a controlling module in Russian PMIS

	The product's name	Company	Controlling module (+ - yes, 0 – no)
		Informcontact
		Nikos-Soft
	RS Balance ver. 2.7
		Altant-inform
		Aleph Consulting&Soft
	BOSS Corporation
		Intellect service
	Galaxy	Galaxy
	Intalev:corporate finance
	Laguna 2000	Accord soft
	LoKOFFICE
		Client-server-technologies
	Contact Manager module	IBS TopS Lanit
	Monopoly	Formosa-soft
	TB Corporation
		TECTON, IntelGroup
	TIS (trade information system)
		Infosoft
	Figaro-ERP	Business Console

1.6.7. Prospects for joint development of PMIS

and controlling

In order to look into the future, let's first try to go back to the past.

The development of methods of managing industrial enterprises at the beginning of the twentieth century is associated primarily with the names of G. Ford, F. Taylor, G. Gantt, A. Fayol and others. It was A. Fayol who divided the actions of the administration into a number of functions, which included forecasting and planning, creation of organizational structures, team management, coordination (of managers’ actions) and control. .

Inventory management model, leading to the "square root formula" for the optimal order size, proposed by F. Harris in 1915, but became famous after the publication of the well-known work of R. Wilson in 1934, and is therefore often called the Wilson model. The theory of inventory management received a powerful impetus in 1951 thanks to the works of K. Arrow (future Nobel laureate in economics), T. Harris, and J. Marshak. In 1952, the works of A. Dvoretsky, J. Kiefer, and J. Wolfowitz were published. In Russian, the theory of inventory management as a whole is discussed in the works of E. Bulinskaya 1964, J. Bukan, E. Keningsberg 1967, Y. Ryzhikov 1969, A. Orlov 1975 and 1979, etc.

It is necessary to note the work on the creation of an ISUP at the Kyiv Institute of Cybernetics of the Ukrainian SSR Academy of Sciences, created by B. Gnedenko in the 1950s (in 1961 this institute was headed by V.M. Glushkov). In the early 60s, work began on automation of inventory management. The end of the 60s is associated with the work of O. White, who, with the development of automation systems industrial enterprises proposed to consider production, supply and sales divisions as a whole. O. White's publications formulated planning algorithms, today known as MRP - material requirements planning- at the end of the 60s, and MRP II - Manufacturing Resource Planning- in the late 70s - early 80s. . Not all modern management concepts originated in the United States. So, the method of planning and management Just-in-time(“just in time”) appeared at the enterprises of the Japanese automobile concern in the 50s, and OPT methods - optimized technology production facilities were created in Israel in the 70s. Concept Computerized Integrated Manufacturing CIM arose in the early 80s and is associated with the integration of flexible production and management systems. Methods CALS - computer support for the supply and logistics process arose in the 80s in the US military department to improve the efficiency of management and planning in the process of ordering, development, organization of production, supply and operation military equipment. . System ERP – corporate resource planning proposed by the analyst firm Gartner Group not so long ago, in the early 90s, and has already confirmed its viability. . Systems CRM– customer relationship management became necessary in a highly competitive market, where the focus was not on the product, but on the customer. Much has been done in the USSR and in Russia, primarily at the Institute of Control Problems, the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics, the All-Russian Scientific Research Institute for System Research and the Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Currently, the emphasis in enterprise resource planning (based on ERP systems) is shifting towards supporting and implementing supply chain management processes ( SCM systems), customer relationship management (CRM systems) and e-business (e-commerce systems).

Let's analyze the development trends of the Russian software market for automating the process of enterprise management. We can conclude that it is developing dynamically and the range of tasks that require automation is becoming more complex. At first, managers of Russian enterprises most often set simple tasks, in particular, the task of automating the accounting process. With the development of companies and the increasing complexity of business processes, the need arose not only for “post-mortem accounting”, but also for the management of material and technical supplies (logistics processes), work with debtors and creditors and many other tasks that the internal and external environment poses to the enterprise. . To solve these problems, corporate information management systems began to be used - solutions covering the activities of the entire enterprise.

Thus, as a result of “evolution,” the ISMS has transformed from computer accounting and an automated inventory management system into a comprehensive management system for the entire enterprise.

Currently, there are a large number of standard PMIS on the market - from local ones (costing up to 50 thousand US dollars) to large integrated ones (costing 500 thousand US dollars and more). Standard solutions of these PMIS are “tied” by supplier companies to the conditions of specific enterprises.

Note that currently the main part of the management system is not developed on the basis of standard solutions, but in a single copy for each individual enterprise. This is done by the relevant departments of enterprises in order to most fully take into account the characteristics of specific enterprises.

The classification of typical systems available on the Russian market is presented in Table 5. It was developed in .

Here is a description of the main types of PMIS.

· Local systems. As a rule, they are designed to automate activities in one or two areas. Often they can be a so-called “boxed” product. The cost of such solutions ranges from several thousand to several tens of thousands of US dollars.

· Financial and management systems. Such solutions have much greater functionality compared to local ones. However, their distinguishing feature is the absence of modules dedicated to production processes. And if in the first category only Russian systems are presented, then here the ratio of Russian and Western products is approximately equal. The implementation time of such systems can fluctuate around a year, and the cost can range from 50 thousand to 200 thousand US dollars. The systems designated in Table 5 as “transitional” are in the stage of transition to the class of medium integrated systems.

Table5.

ISUP classification

Local	Financial and managerial			Medium integrated	Large integrated
	"Clean"	"Transitional"
	Western
"Inotek"
"Monopoly"
And more than 100 systems
	Russian
		Galaxy
Designers: “Alef”, “Softprom”, “Tekton”, “Etalon”, ABACUS, M2, etc.				Specialized solutions: Hyperion, Business, Objects, PowerPlay
New players: Axapta, Brain, Mincom, Platinum ERA, Wonderware, etc.

Note: systems are listed in alphabetical order throughout.

· Medium Integrated Systems. These systems are designed for production plant management and integrated production process planning. They are characterized by the presence of specialized functions. Such systems are most competitive in the domestic market in their area of ​​specialization with large Western systems, while their cost is significantly (an order of magnitude or more) lower than large ones.

· Large integrated systems. Today, these are the most functionally developed and, accordingly, the most complex and expensive systems in which MRPII and ERP management standards are implemented. The implementation time of such systems, taking into account the automation of production management, can be several years, and the cost ranges from several hundred thousand to several tens of millions of dollars. It should be noted that these systems are intended primarily to improve management efficiency large enterprises and corporations. In this case, the requirements of accounting or personnel records fade into the background.

· Constructors is a commercial software tool, a set of software tools or a specialized programming environment for the relatively quick (compared to universal programming tools) creation of business applications based on the design invariant methodology and operating technology.

· Specialized solutions – are intended mainly for obtaining corporate consolidated reporting, planning, budgeting, data analysis using OLAP technology (on-line analytical processing - operational data analysis - multidimensional operational data analysis for decision support).

Econometric methods in PMIS. An analysis of the real needs of enterprises showed that to create a full-fledged system that would provide not only accounting functions, but also forecasting capabilities, scenario analysis, and support for management decision-making, the standard set of functions of ERP systems is not enough. Solving this class of problems requires the use of analytical systems and methods, primarily econometric, and the inclusion of these systems and methods in the PMIS.

Econometric methods are an important part of the scientific tools of the controller, and their computer implementation is an important part of the information support of controlling. In the practical application of econometric methods in the operation of the controller, it is necessary to use appropriate software systems. General statistical systems such as SPSS, Statgraphics, Statistica, ADDA, and more specialized Statcon, SPC, NADIS, REST (for interval data statistics), Matrixer and many others can also be useful.

PMIS in solving problems of controlling. To summarize, first of all, we note that PMIS plays an undeniably important role in solving controlling problems. But, knowing the importance and need for information support for controlling, it remains unclear why Russian developers are in no hurry to include the controlling module in the PMIS. After all, this is necessary so that the system provides not only computer support for controlling, but also provides managers and specialists with up-to-date and reliable information about all business processes of the enterprise, necessary for planning operations, their execution, registration and analysis. But it would also become a system that carries information about the full market cycle - from business planning to analysis of the results of the enterprise.

Having analyzed almost 30 Russian PMIS (see Table 4), it was not possible to answer this question.

Although the answer may lie in the cost of such a solution, as well as in the lack of awareness by the management of a number of enterprises of the relevance of the development and implementation of controlling. Therefore, the demand for such PMIS is still small. But positive trends are still emerging. So the next generation of the “M-2” system, the “M-3” software complex, developed by the “Client - Server - Technologies” company, is no longer positioned simply as an enterprise management system, but a product that forms a decision-making environment. In the M-3 complex there is a shift in emphasis: from a registration system to a structure that makes it possible to implement forecasting based on professional analysis. The basis for this is the implementation of the controlling mechanism, which involves the creation of a tool for making operational decisions in financial, production and other areas of enterprise activity.

In addition, the experience of Western companies shows that demand is gradually growing for large integrated systems, which are distinguished by the depth of management support for large multifunctional groups of enterprises (holdings or financial and industrial groups).

And if we talk about the development of the domestic PMIS industry and the widespread introduction of controlling into the work practices of Russian organizations and enterprises, we have to admit that for most Russian enterprises the stage of full-scale business informatization is just beginning.

Literature

1. Orlov A.I., Volkov D.L. Econometric methods in resource management and business information support for a telecom operator company. - Journal “Pridniprovsky scientific journal. Donbassky exit". Proceedings of the international scientific and technical conference "Problems and management practices in economic systems." Economics. No. 109 (176). Breast 1998

2. Vinogradov S.L. Controlling as a management technology. Practice notes // Controlling. – 2002. - No. 2.

3. Karminsky A.M., Dementyev A.V., Zhevaga A.A. Informatization of controlling in the financial and industrial group // Controlling. – 2002. - No. 2.

4. Karminsky A.M., Olenev N.I., Primak A.G., Falko S.G. Controlling in business. Methodological and practical foundations for building controlling in organizations. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 1998. – 256 p.

5. Management. Textbook/Ed. Zh.V. Prokofieva. – M.: Knowledge, 2000. – 288 p.

6. Orlov A.I. Sustainability in socio-economic models. – M.: Nauka, 1979. – 296 p.

7. White O. W. Management of production and inventories in the computer age. - M.: Progress. 1978. – 302 p.

8. Computer-integrated production and CALS technologies in mechanical engineering. - M.: Federal Information and Analytical Center for the Defense Industry. 1999. – 510 p.

9. Keller, Erik L. Enterprise Resource Planning. The changing application model. 1996. (http://www.gartnergroup.com).

10. Lyubavin A.A. Features of the modern methodology for implementing controlling in Russia // Controlling. – 2002. - No. 1.

11. Karpachev I. You’ll go left // Enterprise partner: corporate systems. - 2000. - No. 10.

12. Orlov A.I. Econometrics. – M.: Exam, 2002. – 576 p.

13. Orlov A.I. Econometric support for controlling // Controlling. 2002. - No. 1.

14. Internet representation of the company "Client - Server - Technologies" (http://www.m2system.ru).

15. Guskova E.A., Orlov A.I. Enterprise management information systems in solving controlling problems // Controlling. – 2003. - No. 1.

Control questions

1. What is the role of information in decision making?

2. What is the essence of controlling?

3. What are the main ideas of business reengineering?

4. Discuss the basic definitions in the field of enterprise management information systems.

5. What are the main objectives of the PMIS?

6. What is the place of the PMIS in the controlling system?

7. Give a classification of typical enterprise management information systems.

Topics of reports, abstracts, research works

1. The composition and movement of information arrays in an enterprise known to you.

2. History of the development of enterprise management information systems.

3. Circulation of paper and electronic documents.

4. Econometric methods in information systems.

5. The role of the Internet and corporate computer networks in enterprise management.

Previous

Preparation and decision-making in the management process is a set of procedures combined into separate stages. With all the variety of such procedures, the stages of development and decision-making are quite typical. Thanks to this, it is possible to build a general scheme for developing scientifically based management decisions, based on the principles of a systems approach and methods of systems analysis. To achieve success, it is extremely important not only to make a reasonable, expedient, justified, effective decision, but also to take measures to ensure its practical implementation.

Preparation and decision-making in the management process is a set of procedures combined into separate stages. With all the variety of such procedures, the stages of development and decision-making are quite typical. Thanks to this, it is possible to build a general scheme for developing scientifically based management decisions, based on the principles of a systems approach and methods of systems analysis.

General procedural and technological scheme for making management decisions:

• Identification, analysis, diagnosis of the problem.
• Formation of goals and objectives for solving a problem, taking into account limitations.
• Analysis of ways to solve problems and management decisions that are adequate to them.
• Modeling scenario options, assessing the results and consequences of implementing different options.
• Choosing the preferred option, justifying the choice.
• Making a management decision.
• Bringing the decision to execution.
• Management of solution implementation.

The development and adoption of a management decision is usually initiated by the emergence of a problem related directly or indirectly to the object of management. The feeling of a problem that arises as a result of observing the management process is a signal for the manager and management about the need to begin searching for ways and methods of action that will fully or partially solve this problem. In the most general case, a problem is understood as a discrepancy between the real, observed state of the controlled system and the desired, normative state.

The most typical problems, the occurrence of which leads to the need to make management decisions:

• the state of the managed object and the processes occurring in it has come into conflict with the goals of its activities recorded in laws, plans, programs, regulations, charters;
• the functioning of the facility and its performance indicators contradict norms, standards, and requirements, which threatens the loss of stability;
• the needs for the product of the facility’s activities have changed, the market situation has transformed, and therefore it is necessary to make changes to the functioning of the facility;
• an unforeseen emergency situation arose, conditions in the external environment changed dramatically;
• new potential opportunities have emerged to significantly improve the condition and operation of the facility;
• decisions of higher authorities have been adopted obliging them to make fundamental changes in the activities of the management object and to carry out the measures prescribed by these authorities.

Management experts rightly note that identifying a problem in a timely and correct manner means half solving it. Therefore, identifying problems, understanding their essence and correctly interpreting them is an integral part of the decision-making process.

Taking into account the fact that management decisions are closely related to penetration into the essence of problems, the presence of which initiates the solution process itself, the need is obvious not only to identify the presence of a problem, but also to diagnose it. Diagnostics is designed to establish the nature of the problem, its content, degree of urgency, relationship with other problems, types and scale of dangers arising from the problem. Diagnostics is based on the study, analysis, and research of the symptoms of the problem, that is, observable signs indicating its presence.

The danger of confusing the problem and its symptoms should be avoided. The problem is most often characterized by a number of signs and symptoms that give reason to assume its presence, while only individual symptoms allow one to gain confidence in the existence of the problem and in its true essence. And we must strive to eliminate not the symptoms of the problematic disease, but to cure the disease itself, which is the solution to the problem.

A significant role in identifying and analyzing problems that need to be solved is played by the information used, obtained inside or outside the analyzed system. Along with the requirements for the quantity and quality of the information received, its composition and representativeness are no less important. It is well known that excess information is just as harmful as its insufficiency. It is even more important to have the necessary information directly related to the matter, to the problem being studied; such information in control theory is called relevant. To obtain relevant information, it is necessary to resort to filtering processes of all received data in order to select only those that are directly related to the occurrence and essence of the problem being analyzed.

The main sources of information used in the process of identifying problems, preparing and making decisions are internal and external reporting and statistical data, scientific literature, reviews, legislative and regulatory acts, regulations, instructions, foreign analogues, expert assessments, and attitudes of decision makers.

At the second stage of the decision-making process, it is necessary to formulate and formulate the goals and objectives of the solution being prepared. From a clearly defined goal, tasks are drawn more clearly. At the same time, the formulation of goals and objectives is inevitably affected by the psychology and interests of those involved in the analysis, preparation, development of a decision and, especially, its adoption.

The set of restrictions that must be observed when setting goals and objectives, making choices and making decisions forms the area of ​​acceptable decisions. Within this area, a search should be made for options and alternatives considered at subsequent stages of the decision-making process.

Let us note that failure to comply with restrictions is one of the main reasons for making obviously ineffective, unrealistic, or even simply erroneous management decisions. The root cause of such imperfection is that at the stages of preparation and search for rational solutions, restrictive conditions are not analyzed, not fully taken into account, or simply not taken into account. A correctly organized, rationally organized process of developing and making management decisions should include the formulation and analysis of restrictions, the formation of a zone of existence of acceptable decisions.

Among the most creative operations and procedures in the process of developing and making management decisions are the search and formation of a set of alternatives (methods, options) for solving the problem under consideration and the corresponding control actions. The wider the range of alternatives for solving a problem, the greater the chances of finding the most rational, and ultimately the optimal, solution. At the same time, it is practically impossible and impractical to find and compare all possible alternatives. The search and analysis of many options require significant expenditures of money, labor, and time, which in itself can reduce the effectiveness of the best solutions found. As always in such situations, there is some “golden mean”. In the process of searching for alternatives, macroeconomic solutions are limited to 3-4 options, and microeconomic ones - 4-5.

In conditions of limited time, there is a tendency to reduce the finding and comparison of options to finding not the best, but an acceptable solution. In this case, it is considered acceptable to consider a solution option that allows you to significantly weaken or basically eliminate the problem within the available time at an acceptable cost of resources. Analysts within the framework of this approach act on the principle “the best is the enemy of the good” and stop increasing the number of options being studied as soon as among the selected ones there are already options acceptable to the decision maker.

It is also desirable that the alternatives selected for comparison differ significantly from each other in the ways of solving the problem, and thereby in the depth and time of the solution, and the resources spent. If this condition is met, the likelihood of subsequent selection of the most favorable solution option increases. Comparable parameters of differing alternatives include the timing and results of implementing a given solution option, the resources expended, and the expected consequences of the analyzed methods of action.

The key stage in making a management decision is the operation of selecting a preferred alternative from the list of those considered and analyzed. Such a choice is preceded by a comparison and comparison of options based on a range of parameters established during modeling and forecasting, including, first of all, indicators of the degree of solution to the problem, solution time, resource costs, expected consequences of the decision, and the degree of risk of non-fulfillment of the decision.

When choosing the preferred option, justifying their choice, and making the final decision, all participants in this process are forced to consider and take into account a number of outcome indicators: the cost of resources and time, risk, and the consequences of the decision. According to some indicators, some compared options are preferable, and according to other parameters, other options are preferable. Most often, a deeper solution to a problem requires more resources and longer time. Therefore, the choice of the optimal solution can be discussed with a significant degree of convention, since there is no single criterion for the optimality of solutions, with rare exceptions.

In the conditions of a typical multicriteria choice, preference is given to an acceptable option, which seems to be the best from certain positions to decision makers. Quite often, the contribution of the chosen option for solving a problem to the solution of other problems, the expected reaction to the choice of option on the part of interested parties and the interests of the decision maker are taken into account.

The validity of a decision largely depends on the depth of its elaboration, the consistency of the above stages and procedures for developing decisions. To do this, it is necessary to provide for the iterative nature of the entire process with a possible return from subsequent operations to previous ones.

To achieve success, it is extremely important not only to make a reasonable, expedient, justified, effective decision, but also to take measures to ensure its practical implementation. It is necessary to bring the decision to the performers and inform the entire circle of participants in the execution about it. It is also required to organize management of the implementation of the decision made at all stages of its implementation in accordance with a specially developed schedule.

Boris Raizberg

Federal Agency for Education

Federal educational state-financed organization

higher professional education

YUGRA STATE UNIVERSITY

Faculty of Law

Department of Management

COURSE WORK

on development of management decisions

on the topic " Methods for obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a management decision.”

Completed: student of group 7251 Sidorovich V.V.

Checked: senior teacher Gorbunova S.V.

Khanty-Mansiysk, 2009

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................3

Chapter 1. The meaning and essence of information for the management decision-making process.................................................... ...............................................6

1.1. Definition of information........................................................ ...........................6

1.2. Types of information and ways to obtain it................................................... 7

Chapter 2. Basic methods of obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a management decision.................................................... .............................10

2.1. Sources of information........................................................ ........10

2.2. Usefulness of information................................................... ..........................12

2.3. Information restrictions................................................... ...............13

2.4. Receiving and processing information................................................................... .......14

Chapter 3. Analysis of methods for obtaining and processing information for making management decisions (using the example of the full-time university faculty)................................. ........................................................ .......................23

3.1. Analysis of the research object......................................................... ...................23

3.2. Analysis of methods for obtaining and processing information...................................24

CONCLUSION...................................................................................................28

LIST OF SOURCES USED......................................30

INTRODUCTION

In the process of managing a production system, situations constantly arise when managers at various levels (from foreman to minister) are faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. Development and decision-making is a key procedure in the activities of a manager, which determines the entire further course of the management process, especially the final result of management activities.

The decision is one of the creative operations in the technology of management work. On the one hand, in terms of content, it is a logical and mental activity performed primarily by management personnel. On the other hand, a decision is an emotional and psychological act. Like no other type of managerial work, the decision is determined by the psychophysiological personality traits of the manager. Finally, the decision acts as a management procedure; therefore, it must be carefully organized and regulated through legal norms. In order for these conditions to be implemented, it is necessary to take seriously the process of collecting and processing information in order to make an effective management decision.

In modern conditions of global socio-economic development, information support for the management process has become a particularly important area, which consists of collecting and processing information necessary for making informed management decisions. This fact suggests that the topic of this work is quite relevant in our time and requires careful consideration.

The governing body is usually tasked with obtaining information, processing it, as well as generating and transmitting new derived information in the form of control actions. Such influences are carried out in operational and strategic aspects and are based on previously obtained data, the reliability and completeness of which largely determines the successful solution of many management problems. It should be noted that any decisions made require processing large amounts of information; The competence of a manager depends not so much on past experience as on the possession of a sufficient amount of information about a rapidly changing situation and the ability to use it. Future leaders need to know and understand this. Not only the fate of a particular individual or enterprise depends on this, but also, perhaps, the fate of Russia as a whole, its role in the international arena. “Information potential” plays a very important role, since our days dictate an urgent need to feel confident on one’s feet in a society where the importance of information for all spheres of public life is constantly increasing.

The correctness and effectiveness of the decision made is largely determined by the quality of economic, organizational, social and other types of information. Conventionally, all types of information that are used when making a decision can be divided into:

For incoming and outgoing;

Processed and unprocessed;

Text and graphic;

Constant and variable;

Regulatory, analytical, statistical;

Primary and secondary;

Directive, distributive, reporting.

The value of the information obtained depends on the accuracy of the task, since a correctly posed task predetermines the need for specific information to make a decision.

The purpose of this course work is to reveal the basic methods of obtaining and processing information about the situation when making management decisions, and also to consider how these methods are used in practice.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

1). Identifying the meaning and essence of information;

2). Consideration of the main types of information and ways to obtain it;

4). Identifying sources of information and considering the main information limitations;

5). Determination of methods for obtaining and processing information about the situation of making a management decision;

6). Analysis of the specific application of these methods in practice.

The subject of the study is the main methods used to obtain and process information about the situation of making a management decision.

The object of the study is the faculty of full-time education at the university.

The theoretical and methodological foundations of the study were carried out on the basis of the following literature sources: Afanasyev S.V., Yaroshenko V.N., Smirnov E.A., Vorobiev S.N. Litvak B.G. etc.

Chapter 1. The meaning and essence of information for the process of making management decisions.

1.1. Definition of information

“Information” (from the Latin informatio - explanation, presentation), originally - information transmitted by people orally, in writing or in another way (using conventional signals, technical means, etc.); since the mid-20th century, a general scientific concept that includes the exchange of information between people, a person and an automaton, an automaton and an automaton...”

The most remarkable property of information is its ability to cause change. When people learn something new, they begin to live differently, and their needs for information services change. An indispensable condition for survival in the market conditions and maintaining competitiveness is adaptation to changing needs. In practice, the value of information is directly proportional to the role it plays in decision making and what is at stake in that decision. The value of information is determined by how you use it. By itself it doesn't cost much.

Information designed to support decision making makes a significant contribution to the decision. It becomes a factor of production and, like labor, materials and capital, creates wealth. In this function, information is an element of competitiveness, equal in importance to management skill.

Information consists of all the objective facts and all assumptions that influence the decision maker's perception of the nature and degree of uncertainty associated with a given problem or opportunity. Anything that has the potential to reduce uncertainty, whether facts, estimates, forecasts, general communications or rumors, should be considered information.

1.2. Types of information and ways to obtain it

There are a variety of types of information used by managers: facts, estimates, forecasts, generalized connections, rumors.

A fact is an event or condition that is directly observed (the simplest type of information).

Estimates differ from facts in that they are based more on inferences and (or) statistical techniques than on direct observation and calculation. Such an assessment may differ from the actual fact in two ways. Since it is based on a sample, it is affected by sampling error; in addition, it is also affected by measurement error, since it is not based on direct observation. The consequences of both errors can be minimized: the first by increasing sample size, the second by using more accurate measurement methods.

Estimates are related to the past and present, while forecasts are related to the future. They are based partly on extrapolation of trends, partly on analogy and partly on common sense.

In practice, generalized relationships are often used as a basis for assessment and forecast. For example, they are established between sales volume and factors such as national income, consumer confidence, corporate capital spending plan, etc.

A rumor differs from a fact only in that the source of information is less reliable. But rumor may be the only available source of certain types of information, for example, competitors' plans. Thus, rumors occupy a certain place in the information system of any company.